Game #12
Open Division Final
San Mateo, California
17 August 1997
11 Point Match
Nick Ballard (Blue) vs. Emil Malek (White)
Score: 1 - 6
Analysis by Ron Karr
Nick Ballard is well known to the backgammon community for his many accomplishments, and is especially dear to us for being a member of BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY's ruling committee and one of its most ardent supporters. He makes his first appearance in a BGBB final[ly!]. The Bay Area rolls out the welcome carpet to Emil Malek, recently arrived from Denmark, who bested the other half of the draw in his premier BGBB outing. A plethora of conundrums surfaced in this surprisingly short sampling from their match.
| Play 1b |
                     
|
White to play 41
pips(White) = 167
|
||
Enough has been said about the split/slot decision here.
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
13/9 24/23 +0.002 49.9% 12.6% 0.3% 50.3% 11.9% 0.3%
24/20 24/23 -0.020 49.4% 10.9% 0.3% 50.6% 11.7% 0.3%
13/8 -0.021 49.2% 12.0% 0.3% 50.8% 12.5% 0.3%
13/9 6/5 -0.031 48.9% 12.2% 0.3% 51.1% 12.9% 0.5%
24/20 6/5 -0.037 48.7% 11.0% 0.3% 51.3% 12.0% 0.4%
13/9 8/7 -0.084 46.7% 11.8% 0.3% 53.3% 13.4% 0.5%
24/20 8/7 -0.097 46.4% 10.5% 0.3% 53.6% 12.8% 0.4%
|
| 1. | ||||
| Play 2a |
  
|
Blue to play 63
pips(White) = 162
|
||
|
Running seems like the straightforward play here. White is about to make
his 5 point; if Blue can escape a checker, the value of that point is
somewhat reduced. 3s are duplicated, so there are only 7 hit/cover numbers.
The usual favorite, 24/18 13/10, has the advantage of bringing down a new builder, as well as leaving more return shots if hit. Its big disadvantage is the 21 hit/cover numbers it leaves (61, 62, 63, 64, 42, 41, 33, 32, 31, 22, 21, 11).
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
24/15 -0.170 44.8% 8.9% 0.2% 55.2% 15.3% 0.4%
24/18 13/10 -0.183 44.3% 10.0% 0.3% 55.7% 16.6% 0.5%
13/4 -0.223 42.0% 10.5% 0.3% 58.0% 16.5% 0.6%
24/18 24/21 -0.223 43.2% 8.9% 0.3% 56.8% 17.4% 0.5%
13/7 24/21 -0.230 42.2% 9.8% 0.3% 57.8% 16.8% 0.6%
13/7 13/10 -0.254 41.1% 10.4% 0.3% 58.9% 17.6% 0.8%
24/18 6/3 -0.276 41.5% 9.1% 0.3% 58.5% 19.3% 0.9%
24/18 8/5 -0.278 41.4% 9.3% 0.3% 58.6% 19.6% 0.8%
|
| 2. | ||||
| Play 3a |
    
|
Blue to play 41
pips(White) = 155
|
||
Blue has no need for heroics here. With White having the superior board
and attackers in position, it's best to button up on the 24 point and bring
down a new builder. This gives Blue reasonable chances to make some kind
of block against White's two back checkers.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Bar/24 13/9 -0.362 37.1% 8.8% 0.2% 62.9% 18.7% 0.7%
Bar/21 24/23 -0.408 37.3% 7.9% 0.2% 62.7% 22.9% 0.7%
Bar/21 6/5 -0.449 36.7% 7.6% 0.2% 63.3% 24.9% 1.1%
Bar/24 8/4 -0.455 34.6% 7.6% 0.2% 65.4% 21.4% 1.0%
|
| 3. | ||||
| Play 3b |
 
|
White to play 52
pips(White) = 155
|
||
White has a lead in the prime-building contest,
but can't make a new point with this roll.
So it's a good time for him to start a back checker moving to
avoid getting trapped. Blue doesn't have a lot of ammunition in place,
and doesn't particularly want to attack on the 3 point anyway. Using the 2
to slot the 4 point risks losing a lot of racing ground; and even if White
makes the 4 point, he still won't necessarily be in a position to claim.
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
10/5 24/22 +0.244 58.5% 17.6% 0.6% 41.5% 10.4% 0.3%
13/8 24/22 +0.218 57.5% 17.2% 0.6% 42.5% 10.8% 0.3%
10/5 6/4 +0.198 56.4% 17.5% 0.6% 43.6% 10.8% 0.4%
10/5 13/11 +0.192 56.4% 17.1% 0.6% 43.6% 11.1% 0.3%
13/8 6/4 +0.178 55.9% 17.3% 0.7% 44.1% 11.5% 0.5%
10/5 8/6 +0.155 55.0% 16.8% 0.6% 45.0% 11.6% 0.4%
10/3 +0.154 54.8% 16.9% 0.6% 45.2% 11.4% 0.4%
13/6 +0.147 54.7% 16.8% 0.6% 45.3% 11.6% 0.4%
13/8 10/8 +0.143 54.9% 15.7% 0.5% 45.1% 11.4% 0.3%
|
| 3. | ||||
| Play 4a |
|
Blue to play 32
pips(White) = 148
|
||
Blue is glad to be able to hit, but is still vulnerable with 3 blots
around. With the 2, playing 13/11 is not as useful as it would otherwise
be, since White is likely to hit and prevent that checker from being used
as a builder for a while. Advancing the rear checker with 24/22 means that
if White hits, Blue has good chances to hit back or make the other anchor.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
24/21* 24/22 -0.163 44.7% 11.1% 0.5% 55.3% 16.6% 0.7%
24/21* 13/11 -0.183 44.1% 11.9% 0.6% 55.9% 18.0% 0.9%
24/21* 8/6 -0.227 42.4% 10.7% 0.5% 57.6% 17.9% 0.8%
24/21* 6/4 -0.240 42.0% 9.7% 0.4% 58.0% 17.4% 0.7%
|
| 4. | ||||
| Play 4b |
 
|
White to play 42
pips(White) = 169
|
||
White has a close choice of which way to hit the blot on the 4 point.
Bar/21 6/4* increases the chances of making an advanced anchor, and also
threatens the outfield blot. However, Bar/23 8/4* leaves better
distribution for the attack, with builders on three points instead of two;
it seems slightly preferable for White to concentrate on his side of the
board since he has good chances.
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Bar/23 8/4* +0.141 54.5% 17.2% 0.7% 45.5% 12.3% 0.6%
Bar/21 6/4* +0.120 54.2% 15.8% 0.7% 45.8% 12.2% 0.6%
Bar/21 5/3* +0.101 53.2% 15.1% 0.6% 46.8% 11.5% 0.5%
Bar/23 24/20 +0.066 51.7% 14.5% 0.5% 48.3% 11.3% 0.4%
|
| 4. | ||||
| Play 5a |
 
|
Blue to play 53
pips(White) = 163
|
||
Since Blue must leave shots, he may as well fight for the useful 4 point.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Bar/22 9/4* -0.144 44.4% 11.2% 0.5% 55.6% 14.3% 0.5%
Bar/22 13/8 -0.224 41.3% 9.5% 0.3% 58.7% 14.4% 0.5%
|
| 5. | ||||
| Play 6a |
|
Blue to play 53
pips(White) = 162
|
||
This time Blue can play safely with the simple 13/8. Hitting on the ace
point slightly reduces White's chances of covering the 4 point, but
otherwise hurts Blue's position.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Bar/22 13/8 -0.299 38.4% 7.9% 0.2% 61.6% 14.4% 0.4%
Bar/22 6/1* -0.340 37.2% 8.1% 0.2% 62.8% 16.2% 0.5%
|
| 6. | ||||
| Play 6b |
  
|
White to play 53
pips(White) = 162
|
||
White can make either the opponent's 4 or bar points. Since he's ahead in
the race, making the more forward anchor makes sense, while leaving good
coverage of both inner and outer boards.
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
23/18 21/18 +0.247 59.8% 13.2% 0.3% 40.2% 8.2% 0.2%
23/18 24/21 +0.231 59.0% 13.1% 0.4% 41.0% 8.2% 0.2%
13/8 24/21 +0.200 57.5% 13.5% 0.4% 42.5% 8.8% 0.3%
21/13 +0.174 57.3% 13.1% 0.4% 42.7% 10.4% 0.3%
|
| 6. | ||||
| Play 7a |
|
Blue to play 65
pips(White) = 154
|
||
Interesting play. I'm sure I would have played 22/11 at the table, and I
thought hitting on the ace point would be more characteristic of JellyFish
than of Nack, JellyFish's critic and conqueror. 22/11 duplicates 4s to hit and
cover, and also forces White to relinquish the bar point to hit. It also
doesn't leave a checker on the ace point.
On reflection, though, the hitting play has some interesting merits. It
reduces the number of cover numbers for the 4 point, which is always
useful. It also minimizes shots. Since White holds the bar point, Blue
can't make a prime, which favors an attacking, board-building strategy vs.
a purer positional strategy. According to the rollouts, the plays are a
dead heat.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
22/16 6/1* -0.299 38.6% 7.7% 0.1% 61.4% 14.5% 0.4%
22/11 -0.303 38.0% 7.3% 0.1% 62.0% 13.5% 0.3%
22/16 13/8 -0.338 37.3% 7.1% 0.1% 62.7% 15.2% 0.4%
22/16 8/3 -0.390 35.8% 6.9% 0.1% 64.2% 17.1% 0.5%
|
| 7. | ||||
| Play 7b |
|
White to play 22
pips(White) = 155
|
||
A good number, entering and covering the 4 point. It's interesting that
hitting comes out almost as good as covering despite lots of return shots
and not making the 4 point. The reason is clear from the rollout figures:
White wins more gammons by hitting, which almost makes up for the extra
games he loses. White's blockade is decent even without the 4 point, so
the more checkers in back of it, the more gammons. White doesn't mind
contact because of his superior board and the blot on Blue's ace point.
But the solid play is still a bit better, and White's lead in the match
would make it even more indicated.
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Bar/23 13/11 8/4 +0.341 63.4% 14.6% 0.3% 36.6% 7.5% 0.1%
Bar/21 8/4 +0.333 63.8% 12.3% 0.3% 36.2% 6.7% 0.1%
Bar/23 13/9*/7 +0.328 62.6% 16.1% 0.5% 37.4% 8.8% 0.2%
Bar/23 13/9* 8/6 +0.309 61.4% 16.9% 0.6% 38.6% 9.1% 0.3%
Bar/21 13/9* +0.307 61.9% 15.3% 0.5% 38.1% 8.6% 0.2%
Bar/23 18/16 8/4 +0.294 62.3% 13.3% 0.4% 37.7% 8.7% 0.2%
|
| 7. | ||||
| Play 8a |
|
Blue to play 43
pips(White) = 147
|
||
There's no safe play, so slotting either the 9 or 4 points seems
reasonable. Who would believe that hitting loose on the 2 point would be
even close? In fact it's the play that results in the most wins according
to JellyFish (so it would be the play JellyFish would favor in a 1-point
match!). Of course it leaves more return shots, and costs more gammons, but
if not hit, Blue may be able to quickly build a board. Again, since
Blue
is unlikely to develop a priming game, the lower points aren't so bad.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
8/4 16/13 -0.428 32.5% 5.8% 0.1% 67.5% 13.4% 0.3%
16/9 -0.440 31.7% 5.6% 0.1% 68.3% 12.8% 0.3%
8/1 -0.457 31.7% 6.8% 0.1% 68.3% 15.7% 0.4%
6/2* 16/13 -0.457 32.8% 5.5% 0.1% 67.2% 16.4% 0.4%
|
| 8. | |||||
| Play 8b |
|
White to play 65
pips(White) = 147
|
|||
The routine play would seem to be 23/18 11/5, yet this is significantly
weaker than any play that slots the bar point. To understand this, ask the
question: What is the best way for White to improve his game? Answer:
Extend his prime. What's the quickest way to extend the prime? Answer:
Slot new points. Is this too dangerous? Answer: Not in this position.
It's very dangerous for Blue to break his anchor to hit, with no board and
vulnerable blots, so it's quite safe to slot. Good play by White here.
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
13/7 23/18 +0.363 66.3% 9.2% 0.2% 33.7% 5.5% 0.1%
13/7 13/8 +0.358 65.1% 12.1% 0.3% 34.9% 6.6% 0.1%
18/7 +0.302 63.1% 13.8% 0.5% 36.9% 9.8% 0.3%
13/7 11/6 +0.293 62.2% 12.6% 0.3% 37.8% 7.8% 0.2%
11/5 23/18 +0.279 62.7% 8.3% 0.1% 37.3% 5.8% 0.1%
11/5 13/8 +0.260 60.8% 12.0% 0.3% 39.2% 7.7% 0.1%
|
| 8. | ||||
| Play 9a |
|
Blue to play 64
pips(White) = 136
|
||
It's too dangerous for Blue to hit -- on the bar point, that is. Pointing
on the two point is fine, though, since he doesn't have to give up the
anchor to do so.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
8/2* 6/2 -0.464 32.1% 7.2% 0.2% 67.9% 17.4% 0.5%
8/2* 13/9 -0.473 32.1% 5.9% 0.1% 67.9% 16.9% 0.5%
22/16 22/18* -0.485 37.0% 6.8% 0.2% 63.0% 28.2% 1.4%
8/2* 22/18* -0.535 34.2% 8.6% 0.3% 65.8% 29.1% 1.8%
9/3 8/4 -0.545 28.4% 4.9% 0.1% 71.6% 15.8% 0.4%
22/18*/12 -0.565 33.3% 7.3% 0.2% 66.7% 29.0% 1.5%
|
| 9. | ||||
| Play 9b |
|
White to play 53
pips(White) = 138
|
||
Two questions here:
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Bar/20 11/8 +0.287 62.3% 11.8% 0.2% 37.7% 7.9% 0.1%
Bar/22 11/6 +0.286 61.9% 13.0% 0.3% 38.1% 8.3% 0.1%
Bar/22 7/2 +0.283 60.7% 12.8% 0.3% 39.3% 9.0% 0.2%
Bar/20 5/2 +0.281 62.2% 13.4% 0.3% 37.8% 9.8% 0.3%
Bar/20 7/4 +0.268 61.4% 11.1% 0.2% 38.6% 7.3% 0.1%
Bar/20 8/5 +0.265 61.7% 12.0% 0.3% 38.3% 8.9% 0.2%
|
| 9. | ||||
| Play 10a |
|
Blue to play 64
pips(White) = 130
|
||
|
If Blue decides to hit 22/18*, he may as well go all the way and hit
twice. He has to leave 4 blots open anyway, so putting 2 in the air gives
him more time to recover if hit; if not hit, he may be able to improve his
board quickly.
So should Blue hit at all, or make a more conservative play like 13/9 8/2? The problem with the latter is that it accomplishes little (except keeping the gammon chances down). White has a chance to make the 5 prime; if not, he still has a far superior position. The 9 point doesn't fit in well with Blue's position, the 2 point having already made; he really wants to make home board points. The rollouts indicate that the attacking play is worth it despite the increased gammon risk.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
9/3* 22/18* -0.323 40.4% 11.1% 0.2% 59.6% 23.5% 1.0%
8/2 13/9 -0.375 35.5% 7.0% 0.1% 64.5% 15.2% 0.3%
|
| 10. | ||||
| Play 11a |
|
Blue to play 53
pips(White) = 145
|
||
A good roll, allowing Blue to re-anchor and cover the 3 point.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Bar/22 8/3 -0.236 41.0% 9.6% 0.3% 59.0% 15.1% 0.4%
Bar/22 18/13 -0.322 37.7% 7.2% 0.1% 62.3% 14.5% 0.3%
|
| 11. | ||||
| Play 11b |
|
White to play 22
pips(White) = 145
|
||
|
In a position like this, there are a ton of choices with the 22, and none
of them stands out as the obvious play. Determining the best play requires
looking at both sides' strengths and weaknesses.
White has the superior position, with a good blockade against Blue's anchor, and attacking possibilities if Blue tries to make White's bar point. Blue doesn't have a prime to speak of, but he does have a 3-point board. So White should not be too free to leave shots. Getting hit isn't likely to be deadly, but it would allow Blue to make forward progress. If White plays 20/16 18/16(2), he doesn't put any checkers out of play, doesn't leave any unnecessary shots, and keeps flexibility and good control of the entire board. It might look like the rear checker is being stranded by moving off the bar point, but that checker isn't in much danger, and is free to run with most 6s, 4s & 3s. If it gets hit, it won't be too bad, as long as White hasn't exposed another blot.
White Blue
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
20/16 18/16(2) +0.235 59.6% 13.3% 0.3% 40.6% 8.9% 0.2%
20/18 8/2 +0.180 56.7% 14.2% 0.3% 43.3% 9.7% 0.2%
18/14(2) +0.158 56.8% 14.0% 0.4% 43.2% 11.8% 0.3%
20/16 8/4 +0.147 55.6% 14.9% 0.4% 44.4% 11.5% 0.3%
20/14 8/6 +0.133 55.0% 14.8% 0.4% 45.0% 11.6% 0.3%
20/14 6/4 +0.129 54.9% 14.6% 0.4% 45.1% 11.5% 0.3%
18/16(2) 8/4 +0.125 54.9% 15.3% 0.5% 45.1% 12.8% 0.4%
20/16 18/16 6/4 +0.119 55.2% 14.7% 0.4% 44.8% 13.2% 0.4%
20/16 18/16 8/6 +0.110 54.9% 14.5% 0.4% 45.1% 13.3% 0.4%
20/16 6/2 +0.105 55.4% 14.9% 0.4% 45.5% 13.5% 0.4%
|
| 11. | ||||
| Play 12a |
|
Blue to play 22
pips(White) = 137
|
||
|
Hitting on 11 seems clear. Then Blue can either hit the other blot by
switching points or improve the board by making the 4 point. Cleaning up
everything with 18/16 13/11(3) seems too conservative, since switching
points does more with the same amount of safety.
The point-switching play gives up position for tactical advantage. It's not really a blitz, since Blue is short of ammunition and will be reluctant to attack freely given White's good board. But it is likely to let Blue make forward progress with relative safety. Blue may be able to advance his anchor to the bar point or make some additional board points. Making the 4 point goes for the best long-term position. The big problem: getting hit is costly, with three blots and 11 shots (11, 14, 53, 56, 51, 54). If White doesn't hit back, Blue will be pretty good shape. However, he still won't be able to win with the cube until he either makes the 5 point (and he may have to incur additional risks if he tries to do that) or gains a lot more ground in the race. According to the rollouts, the switching play has the edge, primarily because it wins more gammons for Blue.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
13/11*/9 3/1(2)* +0.088 50.7% 21.8% 0.5% 49.3% 14.5% 0.4%
13/11* 8/4 6/4 +0.020 49.9% 18.1% 0.6% 50.1% 15.9% 0.6%
18/16 13/11(3)* -0.006 49.2% 13.8% 0.4% 50.8% 12.9% 0.3%
|
| 12. | ||||
| 13. | ||||
| Play 14a |
|
Blue to play 63
pips(White) = 141
|
||
|
Blue has a bunch of blots, and can't clean them all up. Therefore,
it might seem logical to take advantage of his better board to hit on the
ace point, while threatening White's other blot with 18/15. However, it's
not clear that this play is worth the risk of leaving 5 blots scattered
around the board. Even if White doesn't hit back, there are no direct
covers for the ace point, and Blue still has a lot of work to do to win,
since White has a pretty solid position. Even considering the cube, Blue
would probably have to cover the ace point, hit the other blot and have
White fan in order to win.
If he plays the more cautious 13/7 18/15, Blue creates a useful new point and minimizes blots, while White will be reluctant to break the 5-anchor to hit.
Blue White
Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
13/7 18/15 -0.340 38.2% 10.8% 0.4% 61.8% 20.6% 1.1%
7/1* 18/15 -0.397 37.9% 12.6% 0.4% 62.1% 26.4% 2.1%
7/1* 4/1 -0.436 36.5% 13.1% 0.4% 63.5% 28.0% 2.2%
7/1* 13/10 -0.457 35.9% 11.1% 0.4% 64.1% 27.0% 2.1%
|
| 14. | ||||
| 15. | ||||
| Play 15b |
|
White to play. Double or roll?
pips(White) = 137
|
||
|
White hit back from the bar, and picked up another checker as well.
He now has chances to attack on the 2 point and/or pick up two additional
outfield blots. He should be able to waltz home with relatively few
problems and has excellent gammon chances. The best that Blue can hope
for is a 2-3 or 1-3 backgame, with no guarantee of reasonable timing.
Certainly Blue has a clear pass if doubled.
So should White play on for the gammon? He should ask himself whether there's any danger that Blue could end up with a take next time. For example, if White fails to attack and Blue makes the 2 point immediately, would Blue have a take? Highly unlikely; the timing is dubious and White would have significant gammon chances. So playing on in this position seems justified. |
|
I would not have doubled (level 7 evaluation).
White Blue
Level 7 Evaluation Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Cubeless +1.059 78.0% 48.3% 6.1% 22.0% 4.3% 0.1%
Level 5 Rollouts Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Cube centered +1.236 97.0% 25.5% 4.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Blue owns cube +1.070 73.7% 52.6% 7.3% 26.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Cubeless +1.153 78.9% 53.5% 7.4% 21.1% 3.1% 0.2%
Level 6 Rollouts Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Cubeless +1.185 79.4% 55.0% 8.1% 20.6% 3.1% 0.2%
|
| 15. | ||||
| Play 16a |
 
|
Blue to play. Accept or pass?
pips(White) = 137
|
||
|
Pass.
|
|
I would have passed (level 7 evaluation).
Blue White
Level 7 Evaluation Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Cubeless -1.059 22.0% 4.3% 0.1% 78.0% 48.3% 6.1%
Level 5 Rollouts Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Cube centered -1.236 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 97.0% 25.5% 4.4%
Blue owns cube -1.070 26.3% 0.4% 0.0% 73.7% 52.6% 7.3%
Cubeless -1.153 21.1% 3.1% 0.2% 78.9% 53.5% 7.4%
Level 6 Rollouts Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG
Cubeless -1.185 20.6% 3.1% 0.2% 79.4% 55.0% 8.1%
|
| 16. | ||||
| Play 16b |
|
pips(White) = 137
|
||
|
White went on to win the match, 11-2. |
The game was recorded on tape and transcribed by Richard McIntosh.
Rollouts were made by Richard McIntosh, using JellyFish Analyzer 3.0. Rollout results show equities for the player on move. Candidate plays were better than or within 0.100 equity of the actual plays, evaluated at level 7.
Parameter values for rollouts on moves were:
- level 5
- 7776 games (36x216)
- horizon 7
- seed 817
Standard deviations of equity estimates were between 0.003 and 0.008, generally 0.004.
Parameter values for level 5 rollouts on cube decisions were:
- level 5
- 23328 games (36x648)
- full game
- seed 817
- settlement limit 0.550
Parameter values for level 6 rollouts on cube decisions were:
- level 6
- 216 games (36x6)
- full game
- seed 817
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