Black White
1. 62: 24/18 13/11
Play 1b 
+-------------+---+-------------+
| X         O |   | X O       X |
|           O |   |   O       X |
|           O |   |   O       X |
|           O |   |           X |  167
|           O |   |             |
|             |   |             | +---+
| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |BAR| 7 8 9 0 1 2 | |   |
|             |   |             | +---+
|           X |   |           O |
|           X |   |           O |  159
|           X |   |   X       O |
| O         X |   |   X       O |
| O         X |   |   X     X O |
+-------------+---+-------------+
    White to play 51 
Candidate Plays    Equities
13/7*                -0.054
6/1* 8/7*            -0.078
13/8 24/23           -0.137
13/8 6/5             -0.156
NB: "7*" shows good restraint here, smoothing the distribution. Now 1's (as well as 6's) will make the bar point without giving up the 8 point.

Hitting a second checker does protect the blot on the bar point. And, though otherwise antipositional, hitting on the ace point can generate tempi which lead to a blitz or partial blitz and a sudden tactical advantage. White is just a little short on ammunition to have it pay often enough.

Put another way: Hitting with the 5 would be much better than standing pat, but bringing down the 5 to a stripped point takes priority.

As for theoretical adjustment of JellyFish's numbers: After "7*", sixteen numbers send back a checker with possibly more to come; after "7*,1*", only eleven numbers hit. Also, "7*,1*" means potentially making the ace point with a large gap. Both reasons argue for "7*" being an even better choice than JF indicates.

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