Black White 1. ... 51: 13/7* Play 2a Black to play 11 Candidate Plays Equities Bar/24 11/10 6/5(2) +0.161 Bar/23 6/5(2) +0.149 Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2) +0.134 Bar/24 6/5(3) +0.116
NB: Black wants to make the most of his sudden advantage, "24,5(2)". There are three choices with the fourth ace which further improve his position. "24,7,5(2)" is a useful duplication, and could be the correct idea if somehow the position were a little different and Black were a underdog, seeking complications. As it is, while 5-1, 4-2, 6-2, 6-3, 3-3 are only small gains for White, 6-5 is a medium gain and 6-1, 6-4, 6-6 large gains. Adjust JellyFish's number up slightly for any potential backgames this play might create.
"23,5(2)" improves the placement of the back checkers, and looks compelling -- probably the move most players would make. When Black is not attacked, this will add most of 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 and 6-5 (although doubles downgrade) to his list of good numbers. If White's 8 point were stripped, this move would be the correct approach.
"24,10,5(2)" is quiet but effective; it adds 3-1, 6-2 and 6-3 to Black's good numbers (though 4-1 makes the 9 instead of 7 point), and likely upgrades 3-2, 4-3 and 1-1. In addition, and what many people underrate, this ace improves the placement of a builder even when not harnessed immediately. "24,10,5(2)" commands an advantage with less murkiness than the other two choices.
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